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tv   Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen on the U.S. Economy  CSPAN  December 2, 2015 9:00pm-10:00pm EST

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>> >> over three dozen black people were shot dead. so where was black lives matter? my question is. >> that is so true by the way.
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>> will you address the black community on what we will do about stopping the cry in the black community with blackguard black pride and crime in our schools? day mcdevitt do that i would to the wharton school of finance in philadelphia a highly respected great man the answer is yes. ladies and gentlemen, you are spectacular people getting here was not so easy but there is such love in the room we will make america great again. better than ever before. figure. i love you. ♪ ♪ ♪
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thank you ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪
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♪ ♪ ♪ ♪
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♪ ♪ >> donald trump in manassas virginia a short distance from the nation's capital so the numbers are of the screen.
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will go straight to your calls in jersey city and new jersey. >> caller: that was incoherent craping if he is the nominee the democrats will rollover as. talking about 9/11 and ed we have to do better than that. we have to do better. >> you were calling on the republican my. who is our candidate? >> chris chris di add john kasich i like grownups who have had experience, but this guy is a clown. it was funny all through the summer but this is ridiculous.
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>> chris calling us from mississippi. >> he is an embarrassment if that is the case the next president will be hillary rodham clinton. every day neck comes out of his mouth is an ally. with the senate and the presidency. >> the campaign rally what did you think of donald trump tonight? >> caller: he is very arrogant and disrespectful.
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s. m. if i percent voted for him but obama has not done anything for us but obama has done a great deal he doesn't have an address% control i will not be voting for clinton or trump but bernie sanders. >>. >>. >> caller: he is absolutely right about the muslims party in the streets i lived in michigan 60 years when the towers went down even the kids disrupted the schools. he is not off. my vote is for donald trump and. >> back to mississippi.
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>> caller: i am of the democrats you should take that money to put that in their animal that back to them. >> caller: yes. i just registered from a democrat to head independent so i can vote for donald trump. he is the most intelligent and has the plans for the common people and to secure our borders and security for our country i have said the democrat my entire make life
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and i am in my sixties and he has impressed bb coz our country go somewhere in a handbasket and the country is just not secure so i am donald trump's 100 percent. >> we spoke to a number of attendees at the rally in virginia before in the event was under way we showed you some of those conversations is that we will go back to your phone calls. >> we want to talk to those people. why did you decide to come out tonight? chemical want to see what the candidate has to say he will turn the country around.
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>> who had been supported in the past and why donald trump 2016? >> i have said a democrat freddie years but it is what he says we need to close the borders and secure the country we are broke we keep paying bills around the world we just cannot keep taking people on we have to get back to where we used to me. >> to a sure candidate for years ago? >> the republican. but mr. obama has not done the job. now it is just preparing the country. i think mr. trump can pull us out of the fire. >> your also wearing a sticker are you supporting him? >> yes. to shut down the border to come up and get rid of the
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immigrants illegally. jessica betty else has to do. and then they come illegally to say we are here except test. >> deal think donald trump can get the nomination and can he win? >> i hope he can. >> i know he can win. i think he gets the job done. he can put it together. >> is this your first political rally? >> it is. i just want to see what he has to offer and how he can help us with our jobs in america. >> what you think of his message or towed? >> that is exciting it wakes
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you up to listen i haven't heard of substantial things. >> i it easier to see what he has to say. my husband asked for me to come i am feeling that there's only one guide who is running for president that is rand paul so i am here to see what trump had to say because he is in my town. >> would you support him? >> no. he wants to be king and we came away from that he is running 14 -- for king. >> some of the people at the rally in virginia.
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we're taking calls of what you can think about the prince william county fairgrounds. ohio of the republican line. >> caller: i thought trumpeted the job. he answered questions very well. >> are you a supporter? >> yes i am. >> the next caller from virginia of the democratic line. >> caller: hello. i am a supporter of donald trump. with the military on the streets we need to take care
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of people over here but to say everything before we do which i think obama is a joke. then i think he has done a lot. >> eight you very much i do believe that trump thing -- obama thinks he is king and trump is running for
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president. >> white house coverage of donald trump in virginia with a campaign rally. what do you think of mr. trump? >> caller: the greatest thing to come around since they took out kennedy is spending his own money with those of a running for president and we know who we want to with bernie sanders and hillary i a mexican-american and i will tell you donald trump will
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secure our borders against the illegal aliens and i am sick and tired of these politicians of the super pact i will not so because there is nobody that could be the best president other then donald trump and these political hacks that has to kiss the lobbyist but. >> the line from colorado's. >> caller: i do think trump will be the best president we have had for a long time. he cannot be bought off. the politicians are bought off he is running on his own and they do believe you will be a great president he reminds me of george patton.
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he has that for word go ahead instead of just talking about it. i will vote for him i do believe he will be the best president we have had in a long time. >> of light from washington and go-ahead. >> caller: did go. truck is very impressive i like best that he does what he says he will do if he definitely has to vote. >> barack obama message got into the destroyed in a deal they hope that we have is down a job as far as hillary
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or bernie sanders they're both jokes why would we put it hillary and after what she has done in charge? donald trump has my vote. go america. >> we will come back to more of your phone calls but first to man on the street interviews and we spoke to some of the attendees in manassas virginia. >> we are supporters why did you decide to come here tonight? >> as the leading candidates we're interested in what he has to say. >> why is trump lead the in all the national polls? >> people appreciate his candor people believed
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writer ron what he says. >> following up with the political correctness? >> it a more you you cannot discuss a subject you cannot come to resolution. >> to explain to those pundits why donald trump is resonating. >>. >> it is the change and they're tired of what they have been seeing. >> we have to first-time voters. why are you scheerer? >> we're trying to support him and give him our vote.
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>> and to add the enthusiasm for the country. giving the history of political correctness and has been taken a little too far if he gives a good perspective of the convives of what political correctness is. disagree or agree. >> why has he resonated? he has led to the spring and summer and now in all of the national polls. >> he standout definitely because he is politically incorrect and has different
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ideas. >> it is classic. and he knows how to get things done. he knows what he once said he knows how to get it done he is a doer. >> your first note is for donald trump? >> yes, sir,. >> some of the people attending "the donald" trump proudly -- rally we're getting your calls for what he had to say tonight.
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i looked at it all with barack obama there is the devastation and he comes across i thank you will see all kinds of jobs and i think he will in west virginia a was a democrat but i changed to the others. i feel that donald trump is the greatest outstanding man to become president.
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and what would he do to go 30 years mortgage if it is $29,000 to the agency's for the grants you can buy a car for $40,000. you can pay for that six years but you pay a house for this same price it takes 30 years. that is my question. >> thanks for calling from kentucky republican callers.
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>> caller: i will be voting for donald trump it will bring america back alive and obamacare is a joke i think donald is the band of his word with the illegals coming into our country to kill people and doing bad things. >> misery on the independent line. >> caller: i have bad of realtor 18 years people of making a 30% less today but 30 percent more are hurting.
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and i am just thankful. >> thanks for calling. now we will go to your calls for those who arrived tonight in manassas virginia some of the attendees that we spoke to before the event got under way. >> the supporters inside of their gross even complete with the button. >> 51 him to be the next president he is the anemia that can do it. >> i love double trouble want hit to win. >> who have been supported in the past and why trump this year? >> he talks about what the people believe immigration reform, with that last
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election we elected republicans they're not doing what you're supposed to be doing. >> i am here to judge for myself if he is a reality tv star or if he has the political platform and agenda for cry want to see if he has set a viable political solution to the problems of america. >> straight from the horse's mouth. i want to hear what he has to say to make an educated vote and so far i have been impressed. >> why donald trump? >> he tells it like it is. i supported sarah palin and john mccain with that election i like honesty and
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people to you like it is. >> and donald trump gets the nomination? >> with a republican super pac i know a lot of these packs don't want someone like trump up their food speaks his mind but look at the turnout. . .
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they represent whoever the campaign. semacodes supported republican nomination in the past and why trump this ear? >> i have been disappointed because i feel like what we supported we never got. >> kenya when? >> just come is going to win. >> why? >> is resonating with the people. and following his campaign and is resonating with people. but for the people. >> what is the most important issue in this election? >> our borders, our american security, our leadership abroad. our borders are very important. we are not safe. we need to look. my grandparents are from italy and they came legally.
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that's okay to come but come legally. and when each attract the people coming in. the ones that are coming in 1000 from syria, there are young men. you don't see women and children. you see young strongmen, 2030. cement barbara bradford thank you for your time. >> you're welcome. >> host: donald trump rally talking to steve scully. a few more phonecalls and a chance to respond what he heard from donald trump tonight. joseph is joining us from ft. lauderdale florida on the independent line. hi joseph. >> caller: good evening sir, how are you doing? i just wanted to say i think mr. trump is so refreshing. when he talks i want to listen. i'm 52 years old. i vote in all my local elections i vote for my congressman, senators and literally my vote
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hasn't been counting. somebody mentioned earlier the super pacs. mr. trump mentioned it tonight. they both these people into office and when they get to washington two years later on like wow this is not what he said he was going to do. trump goes in not telling anybody anything. i think it's refreshing and it was like reagan. when reagan spoke he listened and i was a young man then. just powerful. we are going to do this and our trade agreement with china we have been talking about this for at least 12 or 15 years, at least. there have been 450 billion dollar difference of stuff that comes to america with nothing that comes, honey from bees we don't even grown this country anymore paid to get it from china. it is ridiculous. i think somebody who's able to go washington and say we are
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going to do this, we are going to do this and not have to worry about they need me to say this or do this or say this and do that. that's not what he promised us. we are the ones who pay the taxes here. we pay the salaries. you work for us. i think it's so refreshing and people see that hey this guy is going to win. things are going to change. more people will back him because that's what he brings is just an excitement. >> host: lent your up next from columbus ohio on the republican line. >> caller: hi. i'm a first-time republican voter last time and trump is the only limit can make a difference.
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>> caller: hi, i'm just waiting for trump to be president because i'm entertainment. jfk and reagan.
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i think this man is -- to give the straightaway. >> host: thanks for the call and thanks for all the callers as a road to the white house coverage continues here on c-span2 and coverage of the donald trump rally in manassas virginia. if you missed any of tonight's rally or any of the other political cover to your own to c-span networks, go to our web site and check out the video there. now on to the economic club of washington d.c. where today's federal reserve chair janet yellen said the economic conditions or write for the fed started raising interest rates this month and she did not give a schedule for when the rates would occur but they will make a final decision on interest rates and its meeting on december 15 and 16th. the remarks today are about an hour. [inaudible conversations]
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>> i have your attention please? before i get the introduction i just want to acknowledge a few other people that have joined us since i spoke before. the ambassador claudia for j. is here. [applause] and the ambassador of india is here. and the ambassador of the royal netherlands is here. [applause] and the president of the richmond reserve bank jeff lacher is here. [applause] as i mentioned we are very honored to have 15th chairman of the federal reserve ordered governors as a special guest today. she has had a very distinguished career in academic life and in government. let me briefly give you some of her background. she is a native of work when, went to fort hamilton high
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school in brooklyn, graduated at the top of her class went to brown university graduating, some lobby in economics. got the hd at yale in 1971. she then went to teach at harvard in enomics department and then came down to washington to work with the federal reserve bank from 78 to 79 as an economist and then went over to the london school of economics, and then was -- and she became an economics professor. she was recruited back during the clinton administration to be a member of the federal reserve lord and she served as a member for several years and then was recruited to the latter part of the clinton administration as the chairman of the council of economic advisers. she them went back to berkeley for a number of years and then
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was selected as president of the san francisco federal reserve bank and did that for five and a half years, then was recruited to come back to washington to serve as vice chairman of the of governors of the federal reserve and in february of last year she was confirmed as the 15th chairman of the federal reserve board of governors. we are very honored to have janet yellen is our special guest. we'll make presentations and then we will have questions. now it's my honor to introduce janet yellen. [applause] >> thank you david. and thank you to the economic club of washington for inviting me to speak here today. i would like to offer my assessment of the u.s. economy nearly six and a half years after the beginning of the currents economic expansion and
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my view of the economic outlook. the progress the economy has made towards the federal open market committee's goals of maximum employment and stable prices and that the current situation and the outlook apply for how monetary policy is likely to evolve to best foster the obtained -- attainments of those objectives. the u.s. economy has recovered substantially since the great recession. the unemployment rate it 10% in october of 2009 climbed to 5% in october of this year. at that level the unemployment rate appears apple and see participants most recent estimate of its longer-run normal level. the economy has created 13 million jobs since the low point for employment in early
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2010. payrolls are now almost 4.5 million higher than just prior to the recession. most recently after a couple of months of relatively modest payroll gains, employers added an estimated 271,000 jobs in october. this increase towards the average monthly gains was at 195,000, close to the monthly -- a 10,001st half of the year and still sufficient with continued improvement in the labor market. despite the substantial gains we cannot yet in my judgment declared that the labor market has reached full employment. let me describe the basis for this view. to begin with, i believe a
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significant number of individuals now classified as out of the labor force would find and accept jobs in an even stronger labor market. to be classified as unemployed working age people must report that they have actively sought work within the past four weeks. most of those not seeking work are appropriately not counted as unemployed. these would include tyrese, teenagers and young adults in school and those staying home to care for children and other dependent family members. even in a stronger labor market is likely that many of these individuals would choose not to work. but some were counted as -- counted as the labor force might seek work at the likelihood of finding your work job rose. examples here include people who
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would become too discouraged to search for work and the prospects for employment report and some who retired in their job ended. in october almost 2 million individuals classified as outside labor force because they did not search for work in the prev
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it may over time increased prevalence of part-time employment, i think some workers increase as the labor market improves further. the labor compensation provides another indicator albeit an imperfect one but the degree of labor market is flat. until recently labor
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compensation had grown only modestly an average annual rate of around two to 2.5%. more recently however we have seen a welcome pickup in the growth rate of average hourly earnings for all employees in compensation per hour in the business sector. while it's too soon to conclude but that the rapid rates of increase will -- the sustained pickup would likely signal a diminution of the labor market. turning to overall economic activities u.s. economic output measured by inflation and gross domestic product or real gdp has increased at a moderate pace on balance during the expansion. over the first three-quarters of this year real gdp is currently estimated to have advanced at an
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annual rate of two and a quarter%. this average pace over the previous five years. many economic forecasters expect growth roughly along the same lines in the fourth quarter. growth for this year has been held down by weak net exports which is subtracted more than half a point on average from the annual rate of real gdp growth over the past three-quarters. foreign economic growth, increases in u.s. exports and the u.s. dollar has depreciated substantially since the middle of the year making our exports more expensive and imported goods cheaper. by contrast, real private domestic vinyl purchases which includes housing spending, business investment and
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residential investment currently represent 85% of spending has increased at an annual rate of 3% this year to significantly faster than real gdp. household spending growth has been particularly solid and 2015 with purchases of new motor vehicles especially strong. job growth has bolstered household income and lower energy prices give consumers more to spend on goods and services. we have seen factors likely contributing to consumer confidence more up beat this year than last year. increases in home values and the stock market prices in recent years along with reductions in tax have pushed up the net worth of households which also supports consumer spending.
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finally, interest rates for borrowers remain low due in part to the fomc accommodative monetary policy. these low rates appear to have been especially relevant for consumers considering the purchase of durable goods. other components of vinyl purchases including residential and business investments have also advanced this year. the same factors supporting consumer spending supported further gains in the housing. indeed gains in residential investment spending so far in 2015 although the level of new residential construction still remains fairly low. outside of the drilling and mining factor lower oil prices have placed substantial cuts in
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outlays to structures. business investments spending posted moderate gains. on balance, the moderate average pace of real gdp growth so far this year and over the entire economic sustained -- expansion has been sufficient to help move the labor market closer to the goal of maximum employment. however this progress is an actual mandate to price stability. as inflation continues to run below the fomc longer-run objective of 2% overall consumer price inflation as measured by the change in the price index for personal consumption was only a quarter%, rose only a quarter of a% over the 12 months ending in october.
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however this number largely reflects the sharp fall in crude oil prices since the summer of 2014 that in turn have pushed values for gasoline and other consumer energy products. because energy prices are volatile it's often inflation excluding these two categories known as core inflation which is typically a better indicator of future overall inflation in recent readings of headline inflation. with core inflation which ran at 1.25% over the 12 months ending in october is also well below are 2% objective. partly reflecting the appreciation of the u.s. dollar. the stronger dollar is pushed down the prices of supported goods placing temporary downward
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pressure on core inflation. the plunging crude oil prices may also have had small indirect effects and holding down the prices of non-energy items for inflation rate this is passed on to their customers and some to their energy related costs. taking account of these effects
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i currently see the outlook for current activity in the labor market is close to balance. the weed growth and some foreign economies has restrained the demand for exports over the past year.
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in addition lower crude oil prices reduce activities in the domestic oil year. i anticipate the dragon u.s. economic growth from these factors will diminish in the next couple of years at the global economy improves and the adjustment to prior declines in oil prices are completed. although foreign economies of those wrecks to u.s. economic growth we are monitoring, the downside risk from abroad have lessened since late last summer. among emerging market economies, recent data supports a slowdown in the chinese economy which has received considerable attention will likely continue to be modest and gradual. china has taken action to stimulate its economy this year and could do more if necessary. the number of emerging market
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economies to see his fiscal and monetary policy this year and economic activity and these economies have improved of late. accommodative monetary policy is also supporting economic growth in the advanced economy. a pickup in demand in many advanced economies and the stabilization of commodity prices should in turn boost the growth prospects of emerging market economies. the final positive development to the outlook that i will mention relates to fiscal policy this year the central fiscal policy on real gdp growth has been roughly neutral. in contrast to earlier years in which the ex-duration of similar programs in fiscal policy actions to reduce the federal budget deficit created significant drags on growth.
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also, the budget situation for many state and local governments has improved and the economic expansion has increased the revenue of these governments allowing us to increase their spending. after a number of years of cuts in the wake of the great recession. looking ahead i anticipate the total bill government purchases of goods and services to have a modest positive effect on economic growth for the next few years. regarding u.s. inflation i anticipate that dragged from the large decline in prices for crude oil and imports over the past year and a half will diminish next year. with less downward pressure on inflation from these factors and some upward pressure from further tightening of u.s. labor product markets i expect inflation to move to the 2%
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objective over the next few years. of course inflation expectations play an important role in the inflation process. in my forecast we return to the medium term though longer-term inflation expectations remains reasonably well anchored. in this regard this measures from the survey of professional forecasters come the blue chip economic indicators and the survey of my merry dealers have continued to be generally stable the measure of longer-term inflation expectations from the university of michigan survey of consumers in contrast has hit the loads typical range in recent years. this measure awesome -- often
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seems to respond modestly the temporary to large changes in actual inflation and a very low readings on headline inflation over the past year explains some of the recent decline in the michigan measure. market-based measures of employment compensation have moved up some in recent weeks after declining with low levels earlier in the fall. but the low level of these measures appears to reflect at least in part in risk and liquidity premiums we will continue to monitor this development closely. convincing evidence inflation expectations have moved lower would be a concern because declines in consumer expectations about inflation could put downward pressure on actual inflation making the attainment of our 2% inflation goals more difficult.
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let me now turn to the implications of economic outlook for monetary policy. reflecting policies, reflecting progress towards the committee's objectives many fomc participants indicated in september that they anticipated in light of economic forecasts at the time that it would be appropriate to raise the central funds rate by the end of this year. some projected that it would be appropriate to wait until later to raise the target funds rate range but all agreed that the timing of a rate increase would depend on what the incoming data tell us about the economic outlook and the risks associated with that outlook. in a policy statement issued after its october meeting, the fomc reapproved its judgment
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that it would be appropriate to increase the target range for the federal funds rate when we have seen further improvement in the labor market and we are reasonably confident that inflation would move back over the medium term. that initial rate increase would reflect the committee's judgment based on a range of indicators that the economy will continue to grow with the pace of the further market improvements and return of inflation to 2% even after the reduction of policy accommodations. as already noted i currently judged the u.s. economic growth is likely to be deficient over the next year or two to result in further improvements of the labor market. ongoing gains in the labor market coupled with my judgment
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that longer-term inflation expectations remain reasonably well anchored serve to bolster my confidence in a return of inflation to 2% as it is inflationary effect and declines and energy prices waned. committee participants recognize the future course of the economy censored and am we take account of the upside and downside risks to ramp our projections when judging the appropriate stance of monetary policy. in particular recent monetary policy decisions have reflected our recognition that with the central funds rate near zero we can respond more readily to upside inflation, economic growth and employment than to downside shocks.


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